South Africa is already experiencing an El Niño event.
This was confirmed by Professor Willem Landman, of the University of Pretoria, at a press briefing, held on Friday, with vulnerable sectors.
But Landman said a strong El Niño event will not necessarily translate into a dry season for the entire Southern African region.
He also said this current event became quite strong early on. It was confirmed as soon as early August.
It is now a mature event accompanied by ocean atmosphere phenomenon and is intensifying.
Dr Christien Engelbrecht, of the South African Weather Service (SAWS) said rainfall forecasts point to below-normal rainfall towards mid-Summer.
He also said there is a high probability of above-normal temperatures.
Pumeza Tyali, Director of Risk Assessment and Early Warning, at the SAWS, said “we must avoid equating El Niño with drought.”
Dr John Malherbe, of the Agricultural Research Commission (ARC) said El Niño events vary.
“The 1998 event was strong, but did not have a strong influence on the South African weather and crop yield. An El Niño is generally associated with reduced grazing and lower Summer grain yields. But the current conditions leading up to the 2026/2027 summer are more favourable than before the 2015/16 summer. However, this might not be the situation at the end of Summer.”
Picture: AlexLMX