A new Global Seasonal Climate Update, published by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), indicates that El Niño is forecast to peak towards December 2026.
The update was released on Wednesday.
Celeste Saulo, Secretary-General of the WMO, said “but extreme weather does not need to turn into a humanitarian emergency. WMO is working closely with UNOCHA and partners across the United Nations and the humanitarian community to turn climate forecasts into practical decisions that protect lives and livelihoods.”
Extreme weather events are expected to multiply as El Niño intensifies.
The very latest forecasts point to wetter-than-normal conditions are more likely in parts of East Africa, from October into December. The WMO raised concerns of possible flooding.
Increased risks of drier conditions that could affect crop production, water availability and livelihoods from November, are forecast for parts of Southern Africa, typically at the start of the rainy season.
Warmer conditions and rainfall deficits could persist in Southeast Asia, placing additional pressure on agriculture and water supplies.
The WMO forecasts increased rainfall in Northwest US and southern parts of western South America as well as North America and the northern portion of the Caribbean.
But there is a likelihood of dry conditions in parts of Central America, the southern Caribbean and the Amazon.
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