A recent forecast by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), shows the possibility of a mega El Niño, in 2026 into 2027.

Researchers at the ECMWF see a shift towards warmer-than-normal conditions in several parts of the world. 

The El Niño event is expected to bring relatively warmer weather in equatorial Pacific waters.

Temperatures of between 30°N–60°N, could reach the Northern Hemisphere, between April-June 2026.

In addition, warmer than normal temperatures are forecast for Europe and North Africa, North America and South America. 

Above average rainfall is forecast along the equatorial Pacific, Europe and Australia, with below-normal rain over the Maritime Continent.

But the “northwest–southeast split,” currently experiencing warmer, will see drier conditions.

Picture: Florida Climate Centre

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