South Africa now needs a total investment of R1.6 trillion for the generation of cleaner energy, R383 billion for its transmission and another R1.5 trillion for operational expenses.
Researchers have detailed amounts needed for the country’s journey to a sustainable energy future in the latest study titled “South Africa’s Energy Sector Investment Requirements to Achieve Energy Security and Net Zero by 2050.”
The study was conducted by the Development Bank of Southern Africa (DBSA), the Presidential Climate Commission, the National Planning Commission and the Southern Africa Toward Inclusive Economic Development (SA-TIED) programme.
It covers the development of pathways, energy infrastructure and technical modelling, soft market sounding, funding gap estimation and regulatory review.
This work is supported by a literature review to inform the analysis and allow for results comparison.
In addition, a supplementary Computable General Equilibrium modelling report was produced to provide insight into the socio-economic impact stemming from the scenarios generated in the study.
This further integrates and advances the work various plans, including the Just Energy Transition Investment Plan; the Integrated Resource Plan 2019 and Draft IRP 2023; the Transmission Development Plan 2024; the National Infrastructure Plan 2050; our Nationally Determined Contributions towards a net zero future; the Low Emission Development Strategy and the Climate Change Act.
The study has also included the recently approved Integrated Resource Plan 2025.
By 2050, between 70% and 85% of South Africa’s electricity generation capacity could come from renewable sources (including battery storage), further supported by flexible gas capacity.
Boitumelo Mosako, Chief Executive Officer at the DBSA, said “achieving a greener energy mix by 2050 represents more than an environmental imperative; it’s a strategic opportunity to drive South Africa’s development imperatives, while supplying cleaner energy technologies for the rapidly expanding African market.”
The study calls on policymakers, investors, civil society, and stakeholders to act with urgency. The evidence presented should inform not only national dialogue but also concrete, coordinated policy actions that unlock the capital required for South Africa’s energy transition.