South Africa stands a 50% chance of meeting targets to keep global warming at no more than 1.5 degree celcius. This is if recommendations by the net zero committee, part of the Presidential Climate Commission, led by Lebogang Mulaisi are accepted and implemented into the Integrated Energy Plan( IRP).
High-level recommendations of what should go into the Integrated Energy Plan (IRP), detailing South Africa’s energy mix, were presented to a media briefing on 01st June 2023. Some of the recommendations to get us closer to the target, include scaling up renewable energy to between 50 and 60 Gigawatts (GW) by 2030, supported by storage capacity. Skills development was identified as an urgent priority, especially for communities affected by the transition.
The commission has also recommended a relook at the current electricity pricing systems.
“We have also recommended the ability to locate early new renewable energy using a spatial approach to electricity planning. The IRP would also need to be updated every 2 years” says Mulaisi.
Steve Nicholls, who provided details to high-level points in support of Mulaisi, said a series of events over 12 months led to the recommendations presented. Input came from stakeholder perspectives, technical engagements and document consultation colloquium. “Energy planning is central to development and should be as transparent as possible.”
The IPCC 6th Assessment Report Synthesis Report, March 2023, was received by the Government back in April 2023. At the time Government said the report draws together findings from best available science on the “physical science basis, the impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability.” According to the report, 4/5ths of the world, has spent the carbon budget in line with 1.5 degrees. In response to the report findings that poor communities are the receiving end of all predicted risks, Minister of Environmental Affairs, Forestry and Fisheries, Barbara Creecy said “we have recognized that the consequences of climate change will be catastrophic for the world, and for South Africa, in particular. We have also realized that we cannot continue on the current economic path which is unsustainable and ecologically damaging.”
The transition towards net zero Co2, will have a different pace for different sectors.
Emissions from electricity and fossil fuels sectors are expected to reach net zero earlier than other sectors (2040). Land use change such as deforestation is expected to reach the target much earlier, around 2030.
A least cost pathway to the IRP is the scale up of renewable energy, storage and peaking, especially in the short-term. “If we adopt ambitious and clear goals in line with our development and objectives, the PCC expects a policy adjusted IRP to promote approximately 50 – 60 Gigawatts (GW) of renewable energy by 2030.”
Back up storage capacity is expected to be between 3 -5 GW of peaking support (gas at low utilization with no new coal).
He said the green economy needs to develop skills to meet future needs considering a 1-1 job swap scenario. In addition, there is a need for investing in skills development, SMMEs and enhancing social protection measures. There is also a need to future proof the education system by accounting for future skills and labour force requirements.
“There is a need to reform in parallel with the poor, such as considering the role of free basic electricity (FBE). Recommendations of the commission are that it should be 80KW per month” said Nicholls.