“We are in a weak to moderate El Niño temperature already, but there is 99% confidence there will be lower rainfall this Summer and even drier conditions” says Dr Johan Malherbe, expert agrometeorologist from the Agricultural Research Council (ARC).
He was speaking at an online business breakfast session organized by Earthnews365 in partnership with the LandBank on the 27th September 2023.
The Western interior parts of the country, are not expected to experience negative rainfall as compared to the Eastern parts.
But dry weather conditions are predicted for this Summer.
The focus currently is on El Niño 3.4, an area between 170 to 120 West, around the Equator, and over the Pacific Ocean. The strength of an El Niño is measured by considering the entire area. As of the 22nd September 2023, the anomaly is the temperature is around 1.1 positive.
The Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) is used by scientists to measure deviations from sea-surface temperature norms. El Niño events are indicated by sea surface temperature increases of more than 0.9° Fahrenheit.
Since 2011 to this year, (June, July, August), Malherbe points out that temperatures are 1.5 degrees warmer. This is the reason why International organizations are predicting an El Niño will remain for our South African Summer.
Current predictions for October, November, December, January, are likely to see the strongest impact of an El Niño in South Africa.
“Institute for climate and society, believe this El Niño, will be typical, and will remain until around February 2024.”
Both models used by the Institute, reveal interesting information. The dynamic type of model, Malherbe explains, predicts a strong El Niño, taking into account the ocean and atmosphere.
The statistical model, looks at historical information and predicts a relatively weaker El Niño.
Crop producers, particularly maize, might feel the pinch if predictions are realized.
El Niño of 1981/1982 was dry too and led to many farmers slaughtering their livestock, so was the 2015/2016 cycle.
Professor Sylvester Mpandeli, head of the water, food and energy center, at the Water Research Commission (WRC) , says integrated planning is key to approaching climate change and erratic weather patterns.
He says the country is expected to have 1,7% less water by 2030.
“Our response then, is to encourage resilient, smart climate agriculture policies, developed by the WRC and the Department of Agriculture, and Rural Development.”
This is to increase production and productivity, and lessen food insecurity.
Professor Mpandeli says” we are promoting more agriculture conservation activities because we have the responsibility to ensure emissions decrease.”
Conservation Forestry programmes cover Agro Forestry, promote indigenous forests, strengthen institutions, champion resource use efficiency.
” Climate change is a big threat, but if we drive our activities in an integrated manner, we should be able to deal with what we are facing” says Mpandeli.
This nexus thinking (water, agriculture and energy) is significant because in a water scarce country (and South Africa is among 30 driest countries), and where the agriculture sector uses some 60% of the water, collective action is necessary to use less water.
Picture:istock