The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has predicted above-normal rainfall over most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa for June to September this year.
Both the La Niño and the El Niño are climatic patterns with impacts on weather, ecosystems and economies.
The El Niño brings along warmer, and unusually drier conditions.
So where does that leave Southern Africa?
Dr Johan Malherbe, expert researcher at the Agricultural Research Council (ARC), says the current international forecasting models, indicate a greater chance for a La Nina to be present by our next summer than for an El Nino.
“As you know, this summer was associated with an El Nino event in the Pacific Ocean. As is more typical during El Nino summers, we had an extensive drought over large parts of southern Africa during mid-to late summer.”
Malherbe says while the forecasts are still uncertain, there is a greater chance for a La Nina to be present by next summer over the Pacific Ocean.
La Niña is often associated with wetter and cooler than average summers over large parts of Southern Africa.
He says we should have certain forecasts for Summer by July/August 2024.