Although South Africa is on day 152 without loadshedding, should unplanned outages rise to 14, 000 Megawatts (MW), Stage 1 loadshedding could kick in.
Eskom said in a statement, the unlikely scenario of unplanned outages at 15, 000 MW, would push the country to Stage 2 of loadshedding.
The good thing is, based on the improved generation performance, the base case scenario indicates that there will be no loadshedding, if unplanned outages stay at 13, 000MW or below.
Dan Marokane, Eskom Group Chief Executive, said at a media briefing held on Wednesday, “as Eskom enters a competitive electricity market, it has not only delivered a winter- free loadshedding, but it has done so by being efficient and saving over R10 billion in diesel spend that will be a strong driver to a possible return to profit in our current financial year (FY25).”
He said this outcome has led to predictions suggesting ongoing performance can contribute to potential growth in the economy of around 2%.
“The Summer Outlook in the current year (2023/24), was based on unplanned outages ranging between 14, 500MW and 17, 000MW, which necessitated the implementation of Stage 7 loadshedding as a worstcase scenario, a scenario that was successfully avoided” said Marokane.
Bheki Nxumalo, Eskom Group Executive for Generation, said “by returning more capacity to the grid, we have not only suspended loadshedding, but we have alsocreated a buffer so when we experience delays in returning further units to the fleet, the impacts that are experienced are much less severe and we will continue to focus on increasing the generation capacity of the fleet.”