This article was written and published by Pricewaterhousecoopers South Africa.

Today’s business leaders must grapple with a combination of ever-changing short-term crises while considering how their organisations can adapt to five long-term megatrends that are altering the globe: climate change, technological disruption, demographic shifts, a fracturing world and social instability.

These megatrends manifest themselves most clearly in core domains of human activity: How we move. How we care for ourselves. How we power. How we make. How we build. And how we feed ourselves. In food, as in each domain, traditional industries are reconfiguring themselves into dynamic ecosystems—and historical norms are being challenged.

Disruptions to the food supply are increasingly likely, along with rising demand-side pressures. Agricultural industrialisation has fed the masses but strained producer–consumer relationships and damaged the environment. Deforestation, intensive freshwater use and pollutant runoff have had significant impact. In 2020, agriculture emitted 16 gigatons of greenhouse gasses, about one-third of global emissions. If rises in food production accompany population growth, as expected, projections show that these emissions could increase by up to 80% by 2050 compared with 2010 levels.

For companies in the food system, climate change is a critical concern. According to PwC climate specialists, drought and heat stress could severely challenge the production of maize, wheat and rice—commodities that provide 42% of the world’s calories. PwC’s subsequent climate modelling shows that without intervention, key growing regions for popular consumer crops—including bananas, coffee beans and hops—could face significant production losses due to factors such as rising temperatures and increased rainfall.

Consider these additional factors that put the food system under pressure: There is a projected 56% gap between crop yields in 2010 and those needed by 2050, when the population is expected to rise from roughly 8 billion to 10 billion.

More than 800 million people are currently food insecure, and one-third of food is lost or wasted as it travels through the system.

If Western meat-heavy diets become the norm, we will quickly run out of land for animal farming; at the same time, rising obesity rates show that the current food system is not producing healthy results.

The sweeping nature of change in both supply and demand means that a system developed over the course of a century could be transformed in just a decade or two. For instance, the CEO of a major importer recently highlighted the urgent need to evolve their business model. Without overhauling product traceability—tracking origins, ensuring transparency and resilience, implementing robust data systems—the company risks obsolescence. Food manufacturers are demanding extensive farm data, including information on Scope 3 emissions, pesticide use, ethical standards, audit records and more, to meet expanding sustainability targets, consumer expectations and regulatory compliance.

Read more: https://www.pwc.com/

Picture: Uganda National NGO Forum 

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