Eskom says this year’s Winter Outlook for electricity supply is somewhat better than former years.
This year loadshedding is not expected if unplanned outages remain below 13GW. If outages increase to 15GW, the worst case scenario would be a maximum of 21 days out of 153 days at Stage 2.
In addition there is a 3.1GW decrease in unplanned outages compared to the previous year.
As a result, the forecast range has been lowered to 13 – 15GW, down from 14 – 17GW in Winter 2024.
Dan Marokane, Group Chief Executive, at Eskom, said “this year’s Winter Outlook prediction is built on an improvement in operational performance and overall efficiency. Loadshedding was the lowest in Eskom’s last Financial Year (FY) 2025 than in the previous 2 years. In FY 2025 we delivered power 96% of the time, in the previous year the figure was just 9.9%. Our diesel open cycle gas turbines were utilised approximately 50% less in FY2025 compared to the two previous financial years, saving around R16 billion.”
Between May 2023 (18GW) and April 2025 (13.5GW), there was a significant 4.5GW reduction, reflecting improved plant performance.
Planned maintenance for the current financial year reached 12.8%, up from 12% in the previous year.
In addition, Kusile Units 2 and 3 were reconnected to the main stacks and are now operating with the flue gas desulphurisation (FGD) system.
Unit 1 is currently undergoing a scheduled outage and is expected to return to service in June, also connected to the main stack. Eskom said this follows authorisation from the Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment (DFFE), which had previously permitted the temporary operation of the three units without the FGD system — under strict environmental conditions — until 31 March 2025, following the 2022 structural failure of the west stack.
Koeberg Unit 2 was also returned, with more than 900MW to service in December 2024. Kusile Unit 6 was synchronised to the grid on 23 March 2025, contributing 800MW and is scheduled to be on commercial operation by September 2025.
Medupi Unit 4 is expected to return 800MW to service by the end of May 2025.
A total of 3.470GW wind capacity was made available through curtailment in the Eastern and Western Cape.
Bheki Nxumalo, Eskom’s Group Executive for Generation, “Eskom produced in FY2025 more energy than in the previous two years and we continue to make bold decisions with the future in mind — to build a stronger, more reliable power system for the country. We have continued to maintain high levels of planned maintenance as part of efforts to improve fleet reliability in preparation for the high winter demand, while also meeting environmental license conditions and regulatory requirements.”