The green transition needs a sustainable re-think and proper planning, if it is to succeed globally. This is the point emphasized by Associate Professor of Geological Survey in Finland, Simon Michaux. He was speaking at a webinar hosted by University of Tasmania’s Kate Booth.
His figures collected over the years consider a net zero scenario with no fossil fuels. Solar and wind energy need a lot of buffer storage, a German case study of solar indicates storage 6 months prior to release in the market.
A case illustration of wind energy shared among Sweden, Denmark, the United Kingdom (UK), France and Germany also emphasize a strained power buffer storage capacity especially during winter months, when there is a higher variation. In the UK for example, variations went up to 48%,that is how erratic power production was. Variations in power produced can last weeks and, in some cases, months.
While wind energy is easily accessible, turbines need replacement every 20 years or so.
Michaux’s point is to map the global scenario carefully and avoid what he called a “knee-jerk” response to pressures of the Just transition. Where sources of energy like the battery for example, a supply value chain must be mapped out prior to implementation. “The world is approaching an inelastic market” he adds.
The world’s fossil fuels used for energy such as oil, gas and coal are dwindling. EIA reports paint a bleak picture of reserves that are past peak isle. Crude oil production in May 2022 was at 100 million barrels per day. Total world production of liquid fuels has recovered to 99% of 2018 average level, but crude oil plus condensate remains more than 4 million barrels per day, which is below the 2018 levels. Minerals are also becoming less. Renewable energy is necessary and the world will transition to include them anyway.
He suggests next steps for nations should include the following included in the diagram below, adding wind and solar energy in their current stage is not viable. “We need to ask the question- how much non-fossil fuels are needed to replace 1 power station?”
We will bring you an exclusive interview with South Africa’s progress on the Just transition