The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) confirmed an 80% likelihood of the development of an El Niño, from June to August.
Warm ocean waters in the tropical Pacific, are fueling this latest development, expected to deliver more extreme weather and rainfall patterns, nearly everywhere.
António Guterres, UN Secretary-General, said “the science is clear: El Niño is arriving on our doorstep in the coming months with 90% certainty. The world must treat it as the urgent climate warning it is. El Niño conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world. Impacts will hit even harder, travel even farther, and cross borders with devastating speed. The only effective response is climate action equal to the crisis – ending the addiction to fossil fuels, accelerating the shift to renewables, protecting the most vulnerable, and delivering early warning systems for all.”
The WMO said meteorologists will continue to monitor conditions in the coming months to inform decision-making by governments, humanitarian agencies and climate-sensitive sectors.
Celeste Saulo, Secretary General of the WMO, said “we need to prepare for a potentially strong El Niño event – which will exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and in the ocean. The most recent El Niño, in 2023-24, was one of the five strongest on record and it played a role in the record global temperatures we saw in 2024.”
It typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts around nine to twelve months
As a result, there is a forecast of increased rainfall in parts of southern South America, the southern United States, parts of the Horn of Africa and central Asia, and drier conditions over Central America, northern South America, the Caribbean, Australia, Indonesia, and parts of southern Asia.
Similarly, South Asia is expected to receive below average monsoon rainfall, according to the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum.
The Central America region expects drier and warmer conditions according to the Central America Climate Outlook Forum.
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